After two years of consecutive losses, the global real estate market finally saw a positive turn in the second quarter of 2024, hinting at a potential recovery. The surge in real estate values during the era of low interest rates had led to a significant increase in global total returns, with figures reaching 5.0% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2021 and 17.8% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2022, well above long-term averages.
When it comes to investing in Singapore condos, another important factor to consider is the government’s property cooling measures. In an effort to prevent speculative purchasing and maintain a steady real estate market, the Singaporean government has implemented several measures over the years. These include the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which imposes higher taxes on foreign buyers and those acquiring multiple properties. While these measures may have an impact on the short-term profitability of condo investments, they ultimately contribute to the long-term stability of the market, making Singapore condos a secure investment opportunity. If you are interested in learning more about Singapore condos, websites like Singapore Condo offer valuable information and resources for potential investors.
However, with the tightening cycle that followed, these gains were wiped out, and real estate values returned to 2018 levels globally. But we believe that the correction in the market is almost complete, making it an opportune time for investors to consider revisiting this asset class. Real estate has a history of providing stable income returns and diversification benefits over the long term, and it has the potential to generate robust returns during recovery periods. For example, after the recession in the early 1990s, investors saw a cumulative return of 76% over the next five years.
Evidence of a turnaround in valuations can be seen in the second quarter of 2024, where global value losses moderated to 0.74%, the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. This was balanced by income returns of 1.07%, resulting in a positive return of 0.33%, the first positive quarter since 2Q2022.
Among the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, a slight majority saw an increase in real estate values for the first time since 2Q2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK experienced value increases from the previous quarter. Six markets saw a moderation in value losses, ranging from 0.3% to 1.5%, all of which were an improvement from the first quarter of 2024. Only Australia recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter than in the first, with a 4.2% correction that brought valuations more in line with its peers. However, it is important to note that changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income, highlighting the crucial role it plays in driving overall performance in the real estate sector. Thus, investors need to consider both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
When looking at total returns, which combine both income and capital returns, 12 out of 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index saw positive returns in the second quarter of 2024. The US saw flat returns at –0.09%, while Ireland saw a slight decline at –0.22%, and Australia saw a significant decline at –3.07%. However, preliminary data from the NCREIF ODCE index, a capitalisation-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index, showed total returns in the US turning positive at 0.25%. With values on the rise, we expect the positive trajectory in total returns to continue.
Looking at Asia Pacific, while there are signs of a potential rebound in real estate investment globally after two slow years, China and Japan may face some challenges. In the third quarter of 2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the US$7.5 billion ($10.04 billion) in cross-border inflows in Asia Pacific. However, both countries may encounter obstacles due to high debt costs and other factors that could hinder a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows. For instance, interest in Chinese real estate from the West has significantly declined over the past few years due to geopolitical and economic concerns, which are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. In addition, China’s domestic property crisis continues, with high office vacancies, low rental yields, and ongoing issues with failing developers and government interventions. Meanwhile, in Japan, rising interest rates have prevented cap rate compression, meaning property prices have not increased, forcing real estate holders to rely on historically low-income yields. However, the senior housing niche remains attractive due to Japan’s ageing population, with 29% of the population aged 65 or over. These assets require an amalgamation play by investors.
Australia, on the other hand, offers promising opportunities in the purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market, where there is a significant housing shortage. Furthermore, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns, with funding gaps in construction, pushing developers to seek alternative sources of financing. Sectors like logistics or PBSA could present long-term growth opportunities for investors.
The stabilising of fundamentals in the real estate market, including valuations and transaction market pricing, suggests that the market may have bottomed out. However, this alone does not indicate an attractive entry point for investors. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. Most developed market central banks have started to taper interest rates, which should put downward pressure on financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalisation rates, thereby driving up the value of real estate assets. Additionally, the pullback in construction activity across sectors suggests that property fundamentals will improve in the medium term. With supply obstacles gradually diminishing, markets with positive demand due to population growth or structural changes, such as e-commerce, are poised to see increased occupancies in the medium term. This, in turn, will drive up rents and property values, presenting opportunities for investors to gain from increased occupancies and rents.
While the global private real estate market outlook appears to be improving, not all markets and property types will perform equally well. For example, the US office market still faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment seems unlikely in the near term. This underscores the need for research and selectivity when investing in real estate.
In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has decreased significantly due to resetting real estate values and a soaring stock market. In such a situation, investors may consider increasing their allocations to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. In the long run, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and some degree of inflation hedging. Though there may be bumps along the way, we believe the market is on an upward trajectory, providing excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.…